中国房地产低迷进入第六年：高盛称经济损害超预期
Beijing’s shift away from presales may help protect homebuyers, but it also removes a vital source of developer financing, potentially extending the contraction well into the next decade.
The problem is no longer simply that China’s property market is contracting. It is that the contraction keeps exceeding expectations, even after five years of economists steadily lowering the bar
• Goldman Sachs has increased its estimate of the property sector’s drag on Chinese growth, with the collapse in construction, land sales and investment proving substantially deeper than anticipated.
• Beijing’s shift away from presales may help protect homebuyers, but it also removes a vital source of developer financing, potentially extending the contraction well into the next decade.
• China’s housing downturn is no longer simply a construction problem. Falling household wealth and deteriorating local government finances are reinforcing an economy increasingly dependent on sources of growth outside property.
• Goldman expects the sector’s economic drag to fade gradually, although much of that improvement reflects property becoming a smaller part of China’s economy rather than a convincing recovery in housing demand.
Damage Is Worse Than Expected
10 Comments
Reader notes and reactions to this story.
Maya Chen 2 hours ago
This story captures something I noticed in Shanghai too: young people treat the city almost like a shared living room.
Leo Park 3 hours ago
The point about low-cost identity is sharp. It explains why small habits can feel bigger than entertainment.
Anika Rao 5 hours ago
I would love a follow-up about second-tier cities. Chengdu and Hangzhou probably have different versions of this.
Jonas Miller 6 hours ago
The examples feel familiar even outside China. Urban life is becoming more improvised everywhere.
Yuki Tanaka 8 hours ago
Museum visits, cycling routes, pop-up stores - that mix says a lot about how cities are changing.
Clara Wu 9 hours ago
The article makes the trend feel human instead of just lifestyle branding. Nice angle.
Samir Patel 11 hours ago
I like that the piece does not frame this as Westernization. It feels more locally invented.
Nina Roberts Yesterday
The writing around public streets becoming social spaces is especially strong.
Eric Zhou Yesterday
This reminds me of weekend markets near university areas. Very accurate.
Helen Garcia 2 days ago
Would be great to see photos from the routes mentioned in the article.